How would Capital Account Liberalization Affect China＇s Capital Flows and the Renminbi Real Exchange Rates？

In this paper we study the determinants of gross capital flows, project the size of China's international investment position in 2020, and analyze the implications for the renminbi real exchange rate if China liberalizes the capital account. We assume in this exercise that the renminbi will have largely achieved capital account convertibility by the end of the current decade, a timetable consistent with recent proposals by the People's Bank of China. Our analysis shows that if the capital account were liberalized, China's gross international investment position would grow significantly, and inflows and outflows would become much more balanced. The private sector would turn its net liability position into a balanced position, and the official sector would reduce its net asset position significantly, relative to the country's GDP. Because of the increasing importance of private sector foreign claims and the decreasing importance of official foreign reserves, China would be able to earn higher net investment income from abroad. Overall, China would continue to be a net creditor, with the net foreign asset position as a share of GDP remaining largely stable through this decade. These findings suggest that the renminbi real exchange rate would not be particularly sensitive to capital account liberalization as capital flows are expected to be two‐sided. The renminbi real exchange rate would likely be on a path of moderate appreciation as China is expected to maintain a sizeable growth differential with its trading partners.     

从外贸业务实践需求研究专业外语训练方式

上世纪90年代起,全国各地许多高等院校纷纷开展国际贸易专业,但培养出来的人才特色与针对性不够明显。外贸企业抱怨国际经贸人才数量之少,同时,国际经济与贸易专业日益增加且逐渐成为就业高危专业。是什么造成现今尴尬的局面,致使外贸业务的实践需求与教学目标不相吻合结合调查,本文对当前我国高校国际贸易专业的外语教学中存在的一些问题进行了较深入的分析,对如何改进这些问题和提高人才培养质量提出了粗浅的建议。     

外汇管理局监管新政对商业银行的影响及对策探析

2013年5月,国家外汇管理局为了应对外汇储备迅速增长的压力,防范外汇收支风险,出台了加强外汇资金流入的四项管理措施。本文分析了外汇局新政对商业银行的影响,认为新政的推出会降低外汇存、贷款规模,增大银行外汇敞口规模和汇率风险,同时会造成境内对公外汇存贷款利率上升。在此基础上,本文提出了商业银行应对外汇局监管新政的具体对策。     

Chinese MNEs and managerial knowledge transfer in Africa: the case of the construction sector in Ghana

This paper considers the case of managerial knowledge spillovers from Chinese FDI in Africa, in the context of the Ghanaian construction sector. Using empirical data from in-depth qualitative interviews, the paper first identifies key channels and determinants of managerial knowledge spillovers. Limited local employment at the managerial level in Chinese construction firms is the main impediment to managerial knowledge spillovers from these firms. Cultural and linguistic barriers can explain this situation. Localisation strategies, defined as the progressive replacement of Chinese managers by local ones, can help overcome these barriers and foster managerial knowledge spillovers.     

Modeling FDI based on a spatially augmented gravity model: Evidence for Central and Eastern European Countries

Based on a spatially augmented gravity model, the current paper isolates spatial interrelationships in foreign direct investment (FDI) to Central and Eastern European Countries (CEECs) not only across the destination but also across the origin country dimension of FDI. Results show that (i) spatial interrelationships across destination countries are present and are consistent with the predominance of vertical-complex FDI in total FDI; (ii) spatial correlation across origin countries is given in earlier years of transition, while spillover and competition effects cancel over the whole sample period; and (iii) agglomeration forces gain in importance for FDI to CEECs.     

Book review

The existing literature on offshoring neglects the importance of host country conditions in affecting the boundaries of a firm. In this paper, we focus on the role of the host country's human capital in affecting the organization of offshore production. Acknowledging that an input is produced offshore only after training the host labor, we propose that this training cost depends on the human capital gap between the home and the host country. Our model finds that a sourcing firm prefers to offshore production internationally only if the human capital gap between the home and the host country is below a threshold. Secondly, as the human capital gap increases, the probability for international outsourcing vis-à-vis intra-firm trade increases. Finally, as opposed to conventional wisdom, our model shows the possibility of outsourcing inputs of a high-tech good when the human capital gap between the home and the host is high.     

旅游外语教学中渗透中外文化差异述论

中外文化差异对涉外旅游业有重要影响，在旅游外语教学中渗透有关中外文化差异的内容，能激发学生的学习兴趣、改善学生的知识结构、提高学生的交际能力和意识、提升涉外旅游活动的文化品位，有效提高旅游外语专业人才的文化素养，促进中外文化的交流、交融。     

缓解人民币的升值压力：提工资还是升汇率？

当前人民币面临的升值压力有社会的、政治的以及经济的等各种因素,但其根本则在于,中国劳动者的工资低下,这与生产要素的一价化原则相差甚远。因此,要缓解减少贸易顺差的压力,在提高人民币汇率和工人工资两大措施之间,后者是根本性的,这也是缓和国内收入分配急速拉大趋势的需要。